麻江县蓝莓果园与国家气象站温湿度差异及建模分析

Differences in Temperature and Humidity and Modeling Analysis of Blueberry Orchards and the National Meteorological Station in Majiang County

本文利用麻江县国家站及果园站点2021年逐日气象数据,分析国家站与果园间温湿度相关性及差异特征,并建立基于国家站的果园预报模型。结果表明:1) 麻江国家站与蓝莓果园年内温、湿度变化趋势较为一致。除农田小气候站日最低气温均值小于国家站外,果园各项温度、湿度指标均大于国家站。果园年内日均气温、日最低气温及日平均相对湿度波动程度较国家站更缓和,日最高气温及日较差波动程度较国家站更剧烈。2) 国家站与蓝莓果园的月平均气温及月平均最低气温差异较小,差值均在1.5℃以内;月平均最高气温差异较大,6~9月差值可达2.2℃~2.8℃。国家站与蓝莓果园月平均相对湿度最小值均出现在1月,为74%~78%;最大值出现在4月,为88%~90%。3) 基于国家站的气象要素模型中,日最高气温模型历史检验平均绝对误差在0.6℃~0.8℃之间,日平均相对湿度模型中,历史检验平均绝对误差在2%~3%之间;除龙崩蓝莓站春季逐日模型外,其余春、夏季逐日模型表现均优于全年逐日模型。

Using the daily meteorological data in 2021 to analyze the correlation and differential characteristics of temperature and humidity between the National Station and blueberry orchards in Majiang county, also establish a prediction model based on the national station. The results show that:1) The temperature and humidity changes at Majiang National Station and blueberry orchards are relatively consistent. Except that the daily minimum temperature of the microclimate station is lower than that of the national station, all temperature and humidity indexes of orchards are higher than that of the national station. The fluctuation of daily average temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity in orchards is more moderate than that in the national station, conversely the fluctuation of daily maximum temperature and daily range of temperature is more intense than that in the national station. 2) The difference in monthly average temperature and monthly average minimum temperature between the National Station and blueberry orchards is relatively small, with the difference being within 1.5˚C. Meanwhile, the monthly average maximum temperature varies greatly, with a difference of up to 2.2˚C~2.8˚C from June to September. In addition, the minimum monthly average relative humidity of both National Station and blueberry orchards occurs in January, ranging from 74% to 78%;The maximum value appears in April, ranging from 88% to 90%. 3) Based on the meteorological element model of the national station, the Mean Absolute Error of the daily maximum temperature model is between 0.6˚C and 0.8˚C, and in the daily average relative humidity model, the Mean Absolute Error is between 2% and 3%;Except for the spring daily model of Longbeng blueberry orchard, all other spring and summer daily models perform better than the annual daily model.