近59年环渤海地区气温集中指数变化特征分析

Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Temperature Concentration Index in Surrounding Bohai Sea Area in Recent 59 Years

文章利用环渤海地区各省和直辖市276个国家气象站1961~2019年历年逐日平均气温观测数据,研究了环渤海地区及各分区的TCI (Temperature Concentration Index)时空演变规律和变化特征,及TCI与地理因子、大尺度环流指数的相关关系。结果表明:环渤海地区累年平均TCI呈大致的纬向分布型,由南向北TCI逐渐增大。2000年以来,各地TCI明显减小,山东中南部和河北南部一带小于12.5。历年平均TCI的气候倾向率为−0.156 (10a)−1,通过了0.05显著性水平检验,减小趋势显著。仅承德站TCI有不明显的增大变化趋势,共计91.3% (252站)的台站历年TCI减小趋势显著。平均TCI与海拔高度、纬度、经度的气候趋势系数分别为0.638、0.887、0.403,均通过了0.05显著性水平检验,呈显著的正相关关系。

In this paper, based on the data of daily average temperature in 1961~2019 from 276 national meteorological stations in surrounding Bohai Sea area, temporal-spatial evolution and change characteristics of annual Temperature Concentration Index (TCI) in surrounding Bohai Sea area and its subregions were analyzed using monthly temperature data. Additionally, the correlation be-tween TCI and geographical factors and large-scale circulation index was investigated. The results revealed that the annual average TCI showed roughly zonal distribution pattern and gradually in-creased from southern to northern in surrounding Bohai Sea area. All regions of TCI decreased sig-nificantly since 2000 and TCI in middle and southern Shandong, Southern Hebei was less than 12.5. The climate tendency rate of annual average TCI was −0.156 (10a)−1 and the decreasing trend passed the 0.05 significance test and showed a significant decreasing trend. The decreasing trend of annual average TCI of 91.3% of all stations was significant except insignificantly increasing trend of annual average TCI in Chengde. Correlation coefficients between average TCI and altitude, latitude, and longitude were 0.638, 0.887, and 0.403, respectively, which passed the 0.05 significance level test and showed a significant positive correlation.