吐鲁番市大风天气变化分析及预报服务对策研究

Change Analysis and Forecast Service Countermeasure Research of Gale Weather in Turpan

本文利用1991~2020年吐鲁番市地面气象观测站平均风速、极大风速、最大风速及大风日数资料,选择线性倾向估计法对吐鲁番市大风天气变化特征进行分析。结果表明:近30年吐鲁番市平均风速为1.1 m/s,整体以增加趋势为主,平均每年以0.0496 m/s的速率增加,且增加趋势极为显著。夏季平均风速最大,其次是夏季,冬季最小;近30年吐鲁番市最大风速为18.9 m/s,极大风速平均每年以0.5171 m/s的速率增加,且增加趋势极为显著。2015年以前,吐鲁番市大部分年份的极大风速在多年平均值曲线以下,从2015年往后,极大风速值则都在平均值曲线以上;近30年吐鲁番市最大风速平均值为11.8 m/s,每年以0.0416 m/s速率递增,只是增加趋势不显著;近30年吐鲁番市多年平均大风日数为5.2 d,整体以下降趋势为主,气候变化倾向率为−0.265 d/10a,且下降趋势不显著;吐鲁番市年内大风日数呈现出多峰型变化特征,大风天气主要出现在每年的4月份到8月份,占年内大风日数的84.6%;除了冬季外,吐鲁番其余三季均有可能出现大风天气,以夏季出现频率最高,其次是春季,秋季大风天气出现频率最低。

Based on the data of average wind speed, maximum wind speed and number of gale days from 1991 to 2020, this paper selects linear tendency estimation method to analyze the characteristics of gale weather in Turpan City. The results show that the average wind speed in Turpan City in recent 30 years is 1.1 m/s, and the overall trend is mainly increasing, with an average annual rate of 0.0496 m/s, and the increasing trend is extremely significant. The average wind speed is the highest in summer, followed by summer, and the lowest in winter. In recent 30 years, the maximum wind speed in Turpan City is 18.9 m/s, and the maximum wind speed increases at an average rate of 0.5171 m/s every year, and the increasing trend is extremely significant. Before 2015, the maximum wind speed of most years in Turpan City was below the average multi-year curve, and from 2015 onwards, the maximum wind speed was above the average curve. In recent 30 years, the average maximum wind speed in Turpan City is 11.8 m/s, and the annual rate increases by 0.0416 m/s, but the increasing trend is not significant. In recent 30 years, the annual average number of strong wind days in Turpan City is 5.2 d, and the overall trend is mainly downward, and the climate change tendency rate is −0.265 d/10a, and the downward trend is not significant. In Turpan, the number of gale days in the year shows a multi-peak pattern. The gale days mainly occur from April to August, accounting for 84.6% of the number of gale days in the year. In addition to winter, the other three seasons in Turpan are likely to have gale weather, with the highest frequency in summer, followed by spring, and the lowest frequency in autumn.