2024年5月常德一次暖区暴雨天气过程分析

Analysis of the Weather Process of a Warm Rainstorm in Changde in May 2024

利用高空、地面气象观测资料以及多普勒雷达资料,分析了2024年5月26日一次暖区暴雨天气过程,结果表明:1) 本次暖区暴雨发生时,常德位于高空槽前,受低涡切变东移影响,700 hPa和850 hPa西南急流加强,暖湿气流旺盛,地面有热低压倒槽发展,有弱冷空气南下,地面辐合线的加强触发强对流的发生发展。2) 暖区暴雨短期预报难度大,模式可参考性差,量级和落区均易产生较大偏差,应重点加强短临预警监测以及叫应联动等方面的服务工作。3) 双偏振雷达中差分传播相移率(KDP)与强降水的影响时间和强度对应较好,对强降水的短临监测预警有很好的指示意义。Using high altitude and surface meteorological observation data and Doppler radar data, the process of a warm rainstorm on May 26, 2024 is analyzed. The results show that: 1) When the warm rainstorm occurred, Changde was located in front of the upper trough, affected by the eastward shift of low vortex shear. The southwest jet streams at 700 hPa and 850 hPa strengthened, leading to abundant warm, moist airflow. At the surface, a thermal low developed over the trough, with weak cold air moving southward, and the strengthening of the surface convergence line triggered the development of strong convection. 2) The short-term forecast of a warm rainstorm is difficult, the model reference is poor, and the magnitude and fall area is prone to large deviations, so it is necessary to strengthen the service work of short warning monitoring and call response linkage. 3) In dual-polarization radar, KDP corresponds well with the influence time and intensity of heavy precipitation, which is a good indicator of significance for short-term monitoring and early warning of heavy precipitation.