双碳背景下,中国OFDI对东盟国家绿色发展影响研究

Research on the Impact of China’s OFDI on the Green Development of ASEAN Countries under the “Double Carbon” Goal

为应对气候危机,维护生态安全,绿色低碳发展已成为全球共识。基于2005~2021年东盟七国的面板数据,运用固定效应模型对中国对外直接投资对东盟国家绿色发展的影响效应及路径进行分析。结果表明:中国OFDI与东盟国家绿色发展具有正向相关性,存在“污染光环”效应;金融发展作为调节变量,对中国OFDI对东盟国家绿色发展的影响效应具有一定的阻碍作用;中国对外直接投资可以通过技术效应,提高能源效率,促进东盟国家绿色GDP提高;基础设施发展作为中介变量,是中国OFDI促进东盟国家绿色发展的一个重要机制。未来中国要继续加大基础设施互联互通,开展绿色投资,加强中国和东盟在绿色基建、技术创新等方面合作,共同实现绿色发展。

In order to cope with the climate crisis and maintain ecological security, green and low-carbon development has become a global consensus. Based on the panel data of the seven ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2021, the fixed effect model is used to analyze the impact effect and path of China’s outward direct investment on the green development of ASEAN countries. The results show that China OFDI has a positive correlation with green development of ASEAN countries, and has “pollution halo” effect;financial development, as a regulating variable, hinders the effect of China OFDI on green development of ASEAN countries;China’s OFDI can improve energy efficiency and promote green GDP of ASEAN countries through technical effect;infrastructure development, as an intermediary variable, is an important mechanism for China’s OFDI to promote green development of ASEAN countries. In the future, China will continue to increase infrastructure connectivity, conduct green investment, strengthen cooperation between China and ASEAN in green infrastructure and technological innovation, and jointly achieve green development.