数字普惠金融、产业结构与经济发展

Digital Inclusive Finance, Industrial Structure and Economic Development

在新一轮科技革命和产业革命的加速演化时期,数字普惠金融作为一种新型的金融模式,扮演着促进金融包容性和经济可持续发展的关键角色,推动数字普惠金融与实体经济融合发展,对实现高质量发展至关重要。本文基于2011~2022年31个省份的面板数据,通过构建产业结构发展指数实证检验数字普惠金融对经济发展的影响。研究发现,数字普惠金融在推进我国产业结构优化,促进我国经济增长方面效果显著,在更换被解释变量、剔除变量数据、使用工具变量等稳健性检验后仍支持上述结论;进一步研究发现,数字普惠金融通过促进产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两种渠道来推动经济增长;异质性分析表明,在中西部地区数字普惠金融促进经济增长的效果明显强于东北地区,并且在作用渠道上,通过产业结构高级化促进经济增长的效果强于通过产业结构合理化促进经济增长的效果。

In the period of accelerated evolution of the new round of technological and industrial revolution, digital inclusive finance, as a new type of financial model, plays a key role in promoting financial inclusivity and fostering sustainable economic development. Promoting the integration of digital inclusive finance with the real economy is crucial for achieving high-quality development. This paper empirically tests the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic development by establishing an industrial structure development index based on panel data encompassing 31 provinces from 2011 to 2022. It has been found that digital inclusive finance is effective in advancing the optimization of China’s industrial structure and boosting economic growth. The above conclusion is still supported after conducting robustness tests, including variable substitution, data exclusion, and instrumental variables analyses. Additionally, it is discovered that digital inclusive finance fosters economic growth through two primary mechanisms: facilitating the rationalization of the industrial structure and promoting the advancement of the industrial structure. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the economic growth impact of digital inclusive finance is more pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the northeastern region. Moreover, in terms of the mechanism of action, the influence of promoting economic growth through the advancement of industrial structure is stronger than through the rationalization of the industrial structure.