经济不确定性、数字化转型与商业银行经营风险

Economic Uncertainty, Digital Transformation and Business Risk of Commercial Banks

本文基于微观银行的财务数据、经济政策不确定性指数与数字化转型指数进行实证分析,探究经济政策不确定性、数字化转型、商业银行经营风险三者之间的关系。研究发现经济政策不确定性会显著增加商业银行的经营风险,这种影响在内生性和稳健性检验后依然成立;中介效应模型发现经济不确定性通过增加商业银行存贷比和降低商业银行总资产报酬率两个渠道增加商业银行经营风险;异质性分析发现经济政策不确定性增加商业银行经营风险主要集中在股份制与城市商业银行;调节效应研究发现数字化转型能够显著缓解经济政策不确定性对商业银行经营风险的影响,深入研究发现商业银行的管理数字化、战略数字化与业务数字化均降低了经济政策不确定性带来的冲击。因此,鼓励商业银行发展数字化转型有利于商业银行提高风险管控能力,同时实现银行的高质量发展。Based on the empirical analysis of financial data, economic policy uncertainty index and digital transformation index, this paper explores the relationship among economic policy uncertainty, digital transformation and business risk of commercial banks. It is found that economic policy uncertainty can significantly increase the business risk of commercial banks, and this effect still holds after the test of endogeneity and robustness. The intermediary effect model finds that economic uncertainty increases the business risk of commercial banks by increasing the loan-to-deposit ratio and reducing the return on total assets. Heterogeneity analysis found that the increase of economic policy uncertainty in commercial banks mainly concentrated in the joint-stock system and urban commercial banks. It is found that the digital transformation can significantly mitigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the operational risk of commercial banks. In-depth study found that the commercial bank management of digital, digital strategy and digital business has reduced the impact of economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, to encourage commercial banks to develop digital transformation is conducive to improve the risk control ability of commercial banks, while achieving high-quality development of banks.