数字金融、绿色技术创新与碳排放强度——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Digital Finance, Green Technology Innovation, and Carbon Emission Intensity—An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文基于北大数字普惠金融指数,选取2011~2022年中国30个省的面板数据,运用固定效应模型与中介效应模型,实证检验了数字金融以及三个子维度对地区碳排放强度的影响效应和机制分析。研究发现:(1) 数字金融对地区碳排放强度具有显著抑制效果,数字金融的三个子维度对碳排放抑制效果产生了不同程度的影响。(2) 数字金融通过提升地区的绿色创新水平,从而降低碳排放强度。(3) 异质性分析表明,在不同的地理区位,数字金融对中部地区与资源型省份的减排效果较强,对东部地区的减排效果减弱,在西部和非资源型地区效果并不显著。对此,应提升数字金融服务水平,扩大其碳减排作用;支持绿色创新,推广绿色金融产品;制定地区性数字金融政策,优化减排效果。This paper, based on the Peking University Digital Inclusive Finance Index, selects panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022. Using fixed effects models and mediation effect models, it empirically examines the impact effects and mechanisms of digital finance and its three sub-dimensions on regional carbon emission intensity. The study finds: (1) Digital finance has a significant inhibitory effect on regional carbon emission intensity, with the three sub-dimensions of digital finance having varying degrees of impact on carbon emission reduction. (2) Digital finance reduces carbon emission intensity by enhancing regional green innovation levels. (3) Heterogeneity analysis indicates that digital finance has a stronger emission reduction effect in central regions and resource-rich provinces, while its effect weakens in eastern regions and is not significant in western and non-resource-rich areas. To address this, it is recommended to enhance digital finance service levels, expand its carbon reduction role, support green innovation, promote green financial products, and develop regional digital finance policies to optimize emission reduction effects.