经济增长稳定性评价与时变特征分析

Evaluation of Economic Growth Stability and Analysis of Time Varying Characteristics

“稳中求进”已成为经济工作总基调,经济稳定增长更有助于中国经济发展,也为实现中国式现代化添砖加瓦。本文基于滤波法和马尔可夫区制转移自回归模型对不同频率的GDP、GDP增长率数据进行研究,并从趋势分解和时变特征角度综合分析了近十年中国经济增长稳定性情况。实证分析得,中国前后共经历两次经济波动,其发生时间与国际经济增长疲软和公共卫生事件时间相一致。其中,公共卫生事件发生后,经济增长的波动状态更为明显,持续了近三年时间,但近期,中国经济以相对较低的增长速度重回稳定状态。“Seeking progress while maintaining stability” has become the overall tone of economic work. Stable economic growth is more conducive to China’s economic development and contributes to the realization of Chinese style modernization. This article studies GDP and GDP growth rate data of different frequencies based on filtering method and Markov regime transfer autoregression model, and comprehensively analyzes the stability of China’s economic growth in the past decade from the perspectives of trend decomposition and time-varying characteristics. Empirical analysis shows that China has experienced two economic fluctuations before and after, and its occurrence time is consistent with the time of weak international economic growth and the COVID-19. Among them, after the outbreak of the epidemic, the fluctuation of economic growth was more obvious, lasting for nearly three years. However, recently, the Chinese economy has returned to a stable state at a relatively low growth rate.