中国货币政策独立性与有效性的实证分析

The Independence and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from China

一国货币政策的有效性一直备受关注,而一国货币政策是否具有独立性是该国货币政策工具能否有效运用的前提条件。本文从外部传导与内部反应两个方面对中国货币政策的独立性与有效性进行了实证检验。独立性方面:先从外部传导的角度,分析了美国利率、日本利率和欧盟利率对中国货币供应量和中国同业拆借利率的影响;然后从央行的独立性和内部作用机制来分析货币政策的独立性。有效性方面,重点分析了中国货币供应量和利率对货币政策的最终目标——“保持人民币币值稳定、并以此促进经济增长”的影响。本文最后结合分析得出的结论,给出了一些建议。

The effectiveness and independence of monetary policy is a hot topic. The paper empirical analysis on effectiveness and independence of Chinese monetary policy from international transmission and internal reaction. With international transmission, paper researches on the relation of China’s money supply and interest with the interest of US, Japan and EU. And analyzing whether the variation of interest rate leads to co-rotating variation of quantity of money from internal mechanism. In internal, paper researches on the relation of China’s money supply and interest with economic growth. With the conclusion, the paper gives some advices.