疫情情况下中国宏观经济政策与预防流动性陷阱的产生

China’s Macroeconomic Policy and Prevention of Liquidity Trap under Epidemic Situation

“流动性陷阱”理论虽然具有一定的历史局限性和条件限制性,但是不能忽略它的经济学意义,即“流动性陷阱”意味着经济危机或者经济大萧条;在陷入流动性陷阱的情况下,货币的传导机制失效。在经济衰退时期,要警惕流动性陷阱,不能单纯采取货币政策化解危机。本文通过对CPI同比变化率、Shibor隔夜利率以及计算实际利率的分析,辅以GDP和固定投资数据分析验证,认为我国当前疫情下已经出现了“流动性陷阱”的条件,需要引起高度警惕。我国的“六保六稳”目标是跨越“流动性陷阱”、快速恢复经济发展的根本保证,采取的宏观经济政策是有效的。提出尽快复工复产、复商复市的基础上扩大内需,除了基础设施建设和国有企业的拉动作业起到关键作用以外,重点扶持中小企业、民营企业对保证民生、稳住就业至关重要。需要从财政政策和货币政策以及其他政策上给与特殊的支持。

Although the theory of “liquidity trap” has certain historical limitations and conditional limitations, its economic significance cannot be ignored, that is, “liquidity trap” means economic crisis or great depression;in the case of falling into liquidity trap, the monetary transmission mechanism fails. In the period of economic recession, we should be alert to the liquidity trap and not simply adopt monetary policy to resolve the crisis. Based on the analysis of the year-on-year change rate of CPI, Shibor overnight interest rate and calculated real interest rate, supplemented by the analysis and verification of GDP and fixed investment data, this paper believes that there has been a “liquidity trap” condition under the current epidemic situation in China, which needs to be highly vigilant. China’s goal of “six guarantees and six stabilities” is the fundamental guarantee to surmount the “liquidity trap” and quickly resume economic development. The macroeconomic policies adopted are effective. To expand domestic demand on the basis of returning to work and production as soon as possible, in addition to the key role played by infrastructure construction and the pulling opera-tion of state-owned enterprises, focusing on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises is essential to ensure people’s livelihood and stable employment. We need spe-cial support from fiscal policy, monetary policy and other policies.