中部地区地方政府债务风险评估

Risk Assessment of Local Government Debt in Central China

目前我国地方政府债务风险虽总体可控,但形势严峻,一旦失控,有可能演变为系统性风险,会影响国家之安全。本文以中部六省为研究对象,选定负债率等债务风险指标,以2009~2018年数据为样本,运用因子分析法,实证研究结果表明:中部六省债务规模仍有继续扩大趋势,各省债务风险存在一定的差距性;地方政府债务风险产生因素主要分为支出、收入和经济效益3类;湖南因支出过大,而财政收入较弱,导致债务风险最大,其次是安徽和江西。

At present, the local government debt risk in China is generally controllable, but the situation is grim. Once it is out of control, it may evolve into a systematic risk, which will affect the national se-curity. This paper takes six provinces in Central China as the research object, selects debt ratio and other debt risk indicators, takes the data from 2009 to 2018 as samples, and uses factor analysis method to carry out empirical research. The results show that: the debt scale of the six provinces in Central China is still expanding, and there is a certain gap in the debt risk of each province;the fac-tors of local government debt risk are mainly divided into three categories: expenditure, income and economic benefits;Hunan has the largest debt risk due to excessive expenditure and weak fi-nancial revenue, followed by Anhui and Jiangxi.