数字普惠金融对城乡消费差距的影响研究——基于中介效应模型和门槛效应模型

Inclusive Finance Index and Urban-Rural Consumption Gap —Based on the Intermediary Effect Model and Threshold Effect Model

由于长期受二元经济结构影响,我国城乡区域发展不平衡性问题一直客观存在,城乡收入与消费差距是其重要反映。近年来,随着金融科技的发展,中国的数字经济尤其是普惠金融日益呈现出数字化发展趋势,大幅提升了农村地区金融服务的可获得性。本文采用2011~2018年31省市自治区的平衡面板数据进行分析,运用中介效应模型和门槛效应模型考察普惠金融指数对城乡消费差距的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,普惠金融指数能够直接促进城乡消费差距的缩小,也能通过抑制城乡收入差距显著的缩小城乡消费差距,中介效应占比为32.2%,在控制变量中,城市化水平、对外开放程度、财政支出等因素对城乡消费差距的影响也很显著;普惠金融指数、城乡收入差距对城乡消费差距的影响均存在单重门槛效应,当前这两者都正处于对城乡消费差距影响很大的阈值范围。这为解决城乡发展不平衡性问题提供了思路。

Due to the influence of dual economic structure for a long time, the problem of unbalanced development between urban and rural areas in China has always existed, and the income and consumption gap between urban and rural areas is an important reflection. In recent years, with the development of financial technology, China’s digital economy, especially Inclusive Finance, is increasingly showing a digital development trend, which greatly improves the availability of financial services in rural areas. This paper uses the balanced panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2011 to 2018 to analyze the impact of Inclusive Finance Index on urban-rural consumption gap and its mechanism. It is found that the inclusive financial index can directly promote the narrowing of the urban-rural consumption gap, and can also significantly narrow the urban-rural consumption gap by restraining the urban-rural income gap, with the intermediary effect accounting for 32.2%;the inclusive financial index and the urban-rural income gap have a single threshold effect on the urban-rural consumption gap, and both of them are at the threshold of a great impact on the urban-rural consumption gap Value range. This provides a way to solve the imbalance of urban and rural development.