我国农产品价格波动与相关金融因素影响研究

Research on the Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Products and the Influence of Related Financial Factors in China

近年来,“三农”问题仍是我全党工作的重中之重,因而农产品价格的变化对经济发展的进程有着至关重要的影响。文章首先分析了近20年农产品价格及其影响因素的变动趋势。在实证分析部分,首先对时间序列的稳定性进行检验,再构建VAR模型并对其进行稳定性与外生性变量检验。之后,运用脉冲响应结果分析两因素之间的影响效果,同时也运用方差分解结果分析其相互之间的贡献率大小。研究表明通货膨胀水平、货币供应量对农产品价格随时间推移既存在正向影响也存在负向影响,汇率水平对农产品价格基本呈正向影响,而农民收入在平稳性检验中已剔除,因此没有参与VAR模型的构建。最后,基于研究结果提出相关政策建议。

In recent years, the issue of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers has remained a top priority in the work of our entire party. Therefore, changes in the price of agricultural products have a crucial impact on the process of economic development. The article first analyzes the trend of changes in the price of agricultural products and their influencing factors in the past 20 years. In the empirical analysis section, the stability of the time series is first tested, and then a VAR model is constructed to test its stability and exogenous variables. Afterwards, the impulse response results were used to analyze the impact between the two factors, and the variance decomposition results were also used to analyze the contribution rates between them. The research shows that the inflation level and Money supply have both positive and negative effects on the price of agricultural products over time. The exchange rate level basically has a positive impact on the price of agricultural products, while the farmers’ income has been excluded from the stability test, so they did not participate in the construction of the VAR model. Finally, based on the research results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed.