中国消费跨期替代弹性的测度研究——兼论中国低消费高储蓄现象

A Study on the Measurement of China’s Cross Period Substitution Elasticity of Consumption—On the Phenomenon of Low Consumption and High Savings in China

消费跨期替代弹性有极强的经济含义,同时对理解我国低消费高储蓄现象有着重要意义。本文通过1988年至2021年30个省(市)的消费和利率数据,结合动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE),实证测度了中国宏观的消费跨期替代弹性水平,并从一个新视角看待中国的低消费高储蓄现象。研究发现:第一,在国际层面上,中国消费跨期替代弹性水平较高。第二,消费跨期替代弹性和储蓄率同向变动,具有强相关关系。以上结论为中国消费跨期替代弹性水平的估计提供理论依据,并为中国深入消费储蓄改革提供了政策参考——未来应该侧重于缩小消费跨期替代弹性水平,通过降低未来消费对现期消费的替代性,进而提高当期消费水平。

The cross period substitution elasticity of consumption has strong economic implications and is of great significance for understanding the phenomenon of low consumption and high savings in China. This article uses consumption and interest rate data from 30 provinces (cities) from 1988 to 2021, combined with the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE), to empirically measure the level of China’s macro consumption intertemporal substitution elasticity, and to view China's low consumption and high savings phenomenon from a new perspective. Research has found that, firstly, at the international level, China has a relatively high level of intertemporal substitution elasticity in consumption. Secondly, there is a strong correlation between the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption and the co directional changes in savings rates. The above conclusions provide a theoretical basis for estimating the level of cross period substitution elasticity of consumption in China, and provide policy reference for deepening China’s consumption savings reform. In the future, we should focus on reducing the level of cross period substitution elasticity of consumption, reducing the substitutability of future consumption to current consumption, and thereby improving the current consumption level.