人民币汇率变动对中国–东盟农产品贸易的影响

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China-ASEAN Agricultural Product Trade

本文首先利用RCA指数方法分析中国东盟农产品竞争优势,发现中国农产品竞争优势低于东盟国家平均水平,这解释了近些年中国对东盟国家的农产品贸易中进口量一直大于出口量且差额逐年扩大的现象。之后,利用固定效应模型、异方差稳健的固定效应模型和Driscoll-Kraay标准误模型研究中国与东盟国家双边汇率变动对农产品进出口贸易产生的影响,引入相关影响因素和政治治理指标等变量,以中美贸易战、新冠疫情爆发作为虚拟变量,发现汇率变动与进出口贸易呈正相关关系,同时发现贸易双方的经济水平和政治环境显著影响中国出口东盟农产品,而东盟国家经济水平显著影响中国对东盟国家农产品进口,中美贸易战期间中国与东盟国家的农产品进出口贸易额都受到显著影响。

This article first uses the RCA index method to analyze the competitive advantage of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries. It is found that China’s competitive advantage of agricultural products is lower than the average level of ASEAN countries. This explains the phenomenon that in recent years, China’s import volume has always exceeded the export volume in agricultural product trade with ASEAN countries, and the gap has been expanding year by year. Then, we use the fixed effect model, heteroscedastic robust fixed effect model and Driscoll-Kraay standard error model to study the impact of bilateral exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN countries on agricultural import and export trade, introduce relevant influencing factors and political governance indicators and other variables, take the Sino US trade war and the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic as dummy variables, and find that exchange rate changes are positively correlated with import and export trade, At the same time, it was found that the economic level and political environment of both trading parties significantly affect China’s exports of ASEAN agricultural products, while the economic level of ASEAN countries significantly affects China’s imports of ASEAN agricultural products. Meanwhile, research has found that the economic level and political environment of both trading parties significantly affect China’s exports of agricultural products to ASEAN, while the economic level of ASEAN countries significantly affects China’s imports of ASEAN agricultural products. During the Sino US trade war, the import and export trade volume of agricultural products between China and ASEAN countries was significantly affected.