江苏省金融发展与经济增长关系实证研究

Empirical Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

本文使用江苏省1999年~2021年的数据,将内生增长理论和金融自身的经济功能作为依据,从理论方面阐述金融发展对经济增长的促进作用。选用储蓄率、储蓄投资转化率、金融相关比率和资本边际生产率对金融发展作为衡量的变量,选用名义GDP作为对经济增长的衡量,通过建立Var模型对江苏省金融发展和经济增长关系进行分析,进行了单位根检验、自相关性检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应等,对其实证分析得到经济增长和金融发展两者之间的相互关系,并根据当前宏观政策和江苏省的当前发展状况提出相应的建议。This paper uses the data of Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2021, takes the endogenous growth theory and the economic function of finance as the basis, and expounds on the promotion effect of financial development on economic growth from the theoretical aspect. Savings rate, savings and investment conversion rate, financial correlation ratio and capital marginal productivity were selected as the variables to measure financial development, nominal GDP was selected as the measure of economic growth, Var model was established to analyze the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, and unit root test, autocorrelation test, Granger causality test and impulse response were carried out. Based on the empirical analysis, the relationship between economic growth and financial development is obtained, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward according to the current macro policy and the current development situation of Jiangsu Province.