“双碳”战略下中国低碳经济发展及影响因素分析

Analysis of the Development and Influencing Factors of China’s Low Carbon Economy under the Dual Carbon Strategy

全球气候变化问题日益严峻,中国作为全球最大的发展中国家,积极响应国际社会的呼吁,提出双碳战略,大力推动低碳经济发展,对双碳战略下中国低碳经济发展现状进行研究具有重要意义。通过ArcGIS对2004~2021年中国30省份碳排放强度进行绘制,基于熵值法计算低碳经济绩效综合得分,并构建低碳经济发展绩效评价指标体系,应用莫兰指数和吉尔里指数对我国低碳经济发展的空间效应进行测度,最后选择空间杜宾模型对发展绩效影响因子进行统计分析。结果表明:① 中国30省份碳排放量增速呈先增再降后缓慢上升趋势,2004~2021年各地碳排放强度均有所下降。宁夏碳排放强度最高,绩效得分最低;北京碳排放强度最低,绩效得分最高。② 2004~2021年我国低碳经济绩效发展水平不高但省际差异显著,碳排放量和工业化程度对低碳经济的影响为抑制效果,城镇化率对低碳经济的影响为促进效果。The global climate change issue is becoming increasingly severe. As the world’s largest developing country, China actively responds to the call of the international community, puts forward the strategic goal of “double carbon” and vigorously promotes the development of low-carbon economy. It is of great significance to study the current situation of China’s low-carbon economic development under the dual carbon strategy. Using ArcGIS, the carbon emission intensity of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2021 was plotted, and the comprehensive score of low-carbon economic performance was calculated based on the entropy method. A low-carbon economic development performance evaluation index system was constructed, and the spatial effects of low-carbon economic development in China were measured using the Moran index and Gilley index. Finally, the spatial Durbin model was selected for statistical analysis of development performance influencing factors. The results show that: ① The growth rate of carbon emissions in 30 provinces of China shows a trend of first increasing, then decreasing, and then slowly increasing. From 2004 to 2021, the carbon emission intensity in all regions has decreased. Ningxia has the highest carbon emission intensity and the lowest performance score;Beijing has the lowest carbon emission intensity and the highest performance score. ② From 2004 to 2021, the development level of low-carbon economy performance in China was not high, but there were significant inter-provincial differences. The impact of carbon emissions and industrialization level on the low-carbon economy was inhibitory, while the impact of urbanization rate on the low-carbon economy was promoting.