一带一路倡议下沿线国家干旱与贸易发展潜力关系研究

Research on Drought and Trade Development Potential of Countries along the Belt and Road Strategy

“一带一路”建设近年来取得巨大成效,研究“一带一路”沿线国家干旱与商品贸易关系对沿线各国经济贸易发展具有十分重要的意义。基于交叉小波法研究“一带一路”沿线国家干旱与商品贸易的相关性,分析各国贸易发展潜力。结果表明:“一带一路”倡议提出后,中国与东亚、中亚地区人均GDP实现同步增长模式;新亚欧大陆桥、中国–中亚–西亚经济走廊沿线国家干旱与贸易存在显著相关性;新亚欧大陆桥和中国–中亚–西亚经济走廊沿线国家两条经济走廊的经济和贸易发展得到了显著提升,在未来“一带一路”倡议实施过程中具有极大的发展潜力。

The construction of “the Belt and Road” has achieved great results in recent years. It is of great significance to study the relationship between drought and commodity trade in countries along “the Belt and Road” line for the economic and trade development of countries along the line. Based on the cross wavelet method, the correlation between drought and commodity trade in countries along “the Belt and Road” was studied, and the trade development potential of each country was analyzed. The results show that after the “the Belt and Road” initiative was put forward, the per capita GDP of China and east Asia and central Asia achieved synchronous growth mode. There is a significant correlation between drought and trade in countries along the new Eurasian land bridge and China-central Asia-west Asia economic corridor. The economic and trade development of the new Eurasian land bridge and the two economic corridors of countries along the China-central Asia-west Asia economic corridor has been significantly improved, which has great potential in the implementation of the “the Belt and Road” initiative in the future.