多情景模拟下南四湖流域生态系统服务权衡变化研究

Study on Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs Change in Nansihu Lake Basin under Multi-Scenario Simulation

南四湖是中国第六大湖,也是南水北调东线工程的重要调水区。本文利用InVEST模型、生态效益评估方法和情景模拟法,通过分析区域典型生态系统服务间的相互关系,模拟多种生态管理情景下的土地利用变化,以预测其对生态系统服务价值及其作用关系的影响。研究结果表明:五种模拟情景下,生境质量和授粉服务的变化程度最大;城市自然增长情景与四种生态保护情景下生态系统服务间的相互关系变化相差较大,但是在四种生态保护情景里各服务间的相互关系相差较小;滨岸带退耕还林生态保护情景下总体效益最佳,南四湖流域未来规划应偏向滨岸带退耕还林生态保护情景。

Nansi Lake is the sixth largest lake in China, and it serves as a crucial water diverting lake for the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. This study utilizes the InVEST model, ecological benefit assessment methods, and scenario simulation to analyze the interrelationships among typical ecosystem services in the region, simulating land use changes under various ecological management scenarios to predict their impact on the value of ecosystem services and their interrelationships. The results show that habitat quality and pollination services change the most under five simulated scenarios;the interrelationship changes among ecosystem services under the urban natural growth scenario and four ecological protection scenarios are significantly different, but the differences in interrelationships among services within the four ecological protection scenarios are minor;the overall benefits are best under the scenario of returning farmland to forest in the riparian zone, suggesting that future planning for the Nansi Lake basin should favor this ecological protection scenario.