2000~2023年全球气温变化特征与环流机制分析

Characteristics of Global Air Temperature Change and Analysis on Circulation Mechanism from 2000 to 2023

全球变暖已经成为学者们的共识,但关于近年来全球升温趋势,目前已有研究结果存在分歧,众多学者认为全球变暖速度不断加剧,但部分学者认为全球升温趋势近年来逐渐变缓。因此有必要明确近年来全球气温变化的具体情况。同时全球变暖也会对大气环流产生不可忽视的影响,对于其影响程度有必要进行探究。本文将致力解决这两个科学问题。本文使用NCEP/NCAR数据与中国科学院大气物理所发布的大气环流指数数据,使用趋势分析法、MK检验法、相关分析等方法,探究2000~2023年全球近地表与500 hPa气温变化的具体情况并对其环流机制进行分析,结果发现近10a来全球近地表与500 hPa气温比2000~2023年平均气温分别高出0.210℃、0.160℃,变化速率分别高出0.025℃/10a,0.015℃/10a。全球近表与500 hPa气温变化也对副高面积和极涡强度产生了重大影响,最大相关系数分别为0.884、0.914。由此可见近年来全球近地表和500 hPa变暖趋势不断加剧,为大气环流指数带来了不可忽视的影响。

Global warming has become the consensus of scholars, but there are differences in the results of existing studies on the trend of global warming in recent years, many scholars believe that the rate of global warming is increasing, but some scholars believe that the global warming trend has gradually slowed down in recent years. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the specific situation of global temperature changes in recent years. At the same time, global warming will also have a non-negligible impact on atmospheric circulation, and it is necessary to explore the extent of its impact. This paper will address both of these scientific questions. In this paper, using NCEP/NCAR data and atmospheric circulation index data released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, we used Trend analysis, MK test, Correlation analysis and other methods to explore the specific situation of global near-surface and 500 hPa temperature changes from 2000 to 2023 and analyze their circulation mechanisms, and the results show that the global near-surface and 500 hPa temperatures in the past 10 years are 0.210˚C and 0.160˚C higher than the average temperature from 2000 to 2023, respectively, and the change rates are 0.025˚C/10a and 0.015˚C/10a years higher, respectively. The global near-surface and 500 hPa temperature changes also had a significant impact on the area of the subtropical high and the intensity of the polar vortex, with the maximum correlation coefficients of 0.884 and 0.914, respectively. It can be seen that the global near-surface and 500 hPa warming trends have been intensifying in recent years, which has brought a non-negligible impact on the atmospheric circulation index.