基于时间序列ARMA模型的建筑物沉降预测研究

Study on Building Settlement Prediction Based on Time Series ARMA Model

在我国城市化进程中,高层建筑物越来越多。为了保证建筑物的正常使用寿命和建筑物的安全性,很有必要对建筑物进行长期和系统的监测。本文采用时间序列分析法,利用建筑物观测的15期沉降数据建立ARMA模型,对未来3期的沉降值进行预测,通过与实际值进行对比,从检验效果上看,此模型预测精度高,效果好。

In the process of urbanization in China, there are more and more high-rise buildings. In order to ensure the normal service life of buildings and the safety of buildings, it is necessary to carry out long-term and systematic monitoring of buildings. In this paper, the time series analysis method is used to establish ARMA model based on the settlement data of 15 periods of building observation to predict the settlement value of the next 3 periods. Through the comparison with the actual value, from the perspective of test effect, this model has high prediction accuracy and good effect.