基于供需平衡的2050年中国粮食安全研究

Research on China’s Food Security in 2050 Based on Balance of Supply and Demand

民以食为本,粮以地为先,“藏粮于地,藏粮于技,藏粮于民”是我国保障粮食安全的重要途径。本文从粮食供给和粮食需求两个视角对我国粮食安全进行综合评判,首先基于不同的定量方法对2050年中国耕地面积、粮经比、复种指数、粮食单产、人口数量、人均粮食消费量等基础数据进行预测,以期得到较为合理的预测结果,再根据预测结果对中国2050年粮食供需平衡状况进行分析,最后基于不同自给率的情景下,分析保障我国粮食安全的主要路径选择及其对策措施。研究结果表明:1) 2050年中国将出现较大的粮食缺口,粮食需求远大于粮食供给,自给率仅达到87.56%,未达到95%自给率的安全预警水平;2) 在粮食完全自给、95%自给率的情景下,可以从提高粮作比、增加耐盐水稻种植面积等内部挖潜方式以解决我国粮食需求不足。

Food is extremely important to humans, and the basis for growing food is land. “Hide the food on the earth, hide the food at the science and technology and storage food in the people” are the main ways to ensure food security in China. This paper comprehensively evaluates China’s food security from two perspectives of grain supply and demand. Firstly, based on different quantitative methods, this paper predicts China’s cultivated land area, ratio of planted area of food crops to area planted by crops, grain yield, population and food consumption per capita in 2050, in order to obtain more reasonable forecasting results. Then, we can analyze Chinese food from the perspective of supply and demand balance based on the basic data. Finally, it can find the main way to solve China’s food security based on the different of self-sufficiency rates scenario. Results show that: 1) In 2050, China’s grain will appear a larger food gap. The demand for grain is far greater than the supply of grain, and the self-sufficiency rate is only 87.56%, and data do not reach the security warning level. 2) Under the three scenarios of complete grain self-sufficiency and 95% self-sufficiency, the problem of insufficient grain demand in China can be solved by increasing the ratio of grain to crop or increase the area of salt-tolerant rice planting.