我国生猪现货价格波动规律及成因分析

Fluctuation Law and Cause Analysis of Hog Spot Price in China

依据2000年到2019年间我国集贸市场生猪、猪肉、猪仔、牛肉以及玉米月度价格数据,采用X-12季节调整法和HP滤波法探索我国生猪价格波动规律。同时使用协整分析方法,再构建向量误差修正模型,分析牛肉、玉米、猪肉和猪仔价格对生猪价格影响。研究结果表明:生猪和猪肉价格的季节特征和不规则变化比较明显;生猪价格总体上呈现波动型上涨趋势,周期缩短,振幅增加;从长期来看,猪肉、猪仔价格与生猪价格联系比较大,牛肉、玉米价格对生猪价格影响较小;从短期来看,滞后一期的生猪和猪肉价格对当期生猪价格影响比较明显。

Based on the monthly price data of pigs, pork, piglet, beef and corn in China’s market from 2000 to 2019, this paper uses the X-12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method to explore the fluctuation law of hog price in China. At the same time, cointegration analysis method was used to construct vector error correction model to analyze the impact of beef, corn, pork and piglets prices on the price of hog. The results show that the seasonal characteristics and irregular changes of hog and pork prices are obvious. On the whole, the price of live pigs showed a fluctuating rising trend, the cycle shortened and the amplitude increased. In the long run, the price of pork and piglets is closely related to the price of live pigs, while the price of beef and corn has little influence on the price of live pigs. In the short term, the price of pigs and pork lagged behind a period of the current hog price impact is more obvious.