基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全与粮食安全状态评价——以济宁市为例

Evaluation of Cultivated Land Ecological Security and Food Security State Based on PSR Model—A Case Study of Jining City

耕地生态安全与粮食安全互相作用,互相影响,在我国的农业发展中共同发挥着重要作用。寻找两者之间的联系、精确评估两者的状态,对于正确处理人地关系、进而保证粮食安全具有重要意义。以山东省济宁市为研究对象,结合当地社会农业发展特点,选取人均耕地面积、人口密度、人均粮食产量等20个指标,利用PSR模型,对于济宁市近10年耕地生态安全和粮食动态变化进行分析与评估。应用灰色预测模型,对于特定县域的粮食安全与耕地生态安全状态的发展趋势进行预测。研究发现,济宁市当地粮食安全与耕地生态安全耦合性较低,尤其是耦合协调度极低,两者并非相互促进的关系;济宁市粮食安全状态与耕地生态安全状态均呈现下降的趋势;未来五年,特定县域粮食安全状态有好转趋势,但耕地生态安全状态却呈现持续恶化的趋势。政府已积极做出响应,且在部分地区已取得效果。

Cultivated land ecological security and food security interact and influence each other, and play an important role together in China’s agricultural development. It is of great significance to find out the relation between the two and evaluate the state of the two accurately for dealing with the relationship between man and land correctly and ensuring food security. Taking Jining city of Shandong Province as the research object, combining with the characteristics of local social agricultural development, 20 indexes such as per capita cultivated land area, population density and per capita grain yield were selected, and the PSR model was used to analyze and evaluate the dynamic changes of cultivated land ecological security and grain yield in Jining city in recent 10 years. The development trend of food security and cultivated land ecological security in specific counties was predicted by using the grey predictive model. It was found that the coupling between the local food security and cultivated land ecological security in Jining was low, especially the coupling coordination degree was extremely low, and they did not promote each other. The state of food security and cultivated land ecological security in Jining showed a downward trend. In the next five years, the state of food security in certain counties will be improved, but the state of cultivated land ecological security will continue to deteriorate. The government has responded positively, and in some areas, it has achieved a result.