新宁脐橙的气候灾害特征分析

Analysis of Climatic Disaster Characteristics of Xinning Navel Orange

利用新宁国家基本气象观测站1960~2020年观测气象资料及新宁农业农村局2016~2020年脐橙数据,对新宁脐橙的气候适应性进行了研究。发现1960~2020年新宁平均每年出现干旱2.9次,其中轻旱平均每年1.3次,中旱1.1次,重旱0.4站;重旱出现的主要时段为1962~1973年、1988~2000年、2007~2020年,重旱呈下降的趋势,倾向率为−0.05次/10a。特旱的趋势与重旱相反,呈上升的趋势,倾向率为0.01次/10a。重旱和特旱主要出现在秋季。而脐橙的成熟期为11~12月,因此对脐橙的产量影响很大。新宁县的平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温总体均呈上升趋势。从温度积温变化趋势来看,新宁将更加适宜种植脐橙。

Using Xinning National Basic Meteorological Observatory’s observational meteorological data from 1960 to 2020 and the 2016~2020 navel orange data of Xinning Agriculture and Rural Bureau, the climate adaptability of Xinning navel orange was studied. From 1960 to 2020, Xinning experienced an average of 2.9 droughts per year, of which an average of 1.3 times of mild droughts, 1.1 times of moderate droughts, and 0.4 stations of severe droughts. The main periods of severe droughts were 1962~1973 and 1988~2000. From 2007 to 2020, severe droughts showed a downward trend, with a tendency rate of −0.05 times/10a. The trend of extreme drought is opposite to severe drought, showing an upward trend, with a tendency rate of 0.01 times/10a. Severe droughts and extreme droughts mainly occur in autumn. The ripening period of navel oranges is from November to December, so it has a great impact on the yield of navel oranges. The average temperature, average maximum temperature, and average minimum temperature in Xinning County are all on the rise, with heating rates of 0.1˚C/10 years, 0.21˚C/10 years and 0.16˚C/10 years, respectively. Judging from the temperature change trend, Xinning will be more suitable for growing navel oranges.