近10年楚雄州玉米、水稻产量驱动因子初探

Preliminary Study on the Driving Factors of Corn and Rice Yield in Chuxiong Prefecture in the Last 10 Years

随着科学技术的不断进步,农业生产越来越离不开科学的指导和管理,而粮食产量的高低对于整个国民经济发展起着至关重要的作用。本文以云南省楚雄彝族自治州水稻、玉米作为研究对象,分别从自然要素和人文要素,包括楚雄州气温、降水、化肥、农药使用量、总人口数量等驱动效应因子与玉米、水稻产量关系进行分析,运用相关分析、多元线性回归分析方法,探究楚雄州2006~2019年水稻、玉米产量的驱动因子。结果显示自然因素(气温、降水)对楚雄州近10年来玉米和水稻的产量驱动作用不显著,人文要素中农药化肥施用量、人口数量的驱动作用最为显著。研究结果有望为楚雄州粮食产业发展策略研究提供科学依据。

With the continuous progress of science and technology, agricultural production is more and more inseparable from scientific guidance and management, and the level of food production plays a crucial role for the development of the whole national economy. This paper took rice and corn in Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Yunnan Province as the research object, and analyzed the relationship between the natural factors and anthropic factors, including the driving effect factors such as temperature, precipitation, fertilizer, pesticide usage and total population in Chuxiong, and the yield of corn and rice, using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. To explore the driving factors of rice and maize yield in Chuxiong from 2006 to 2019. The results showed that the natural factors (temperature and precipitation) had no significant driving effects on the yield of corn and rice in Chuxiong during recent 10 years, while the anthropic factors, such as pesticide and fertilizer, had the most significant driving effects on the production. The results are expected to provide scientific basis for the research on the development strategy of grain industry in Chuxiong.