基于“十二五”节能目标的河南省产业结构优化研究

Optimization of Industrial Structure in Henan Province—Based on the “12th FYP” Energy-Saving Goals

如何使产业结构调整能够有利于节能目标的实现是一个亟需研究的问题。文章以河南省“十二五”经济发展和产业规划为依据,首先采用自下而上的部门分解法对各行业能耗和能耗强度进行预测,得到产业结构优化前各行业在规划情景下的增加值–能耗预测值。然后选择约束条件,构建动态灰色线性规划(GLP)模型,对河南省产业结构进行优化研究。最后采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)对结构优化前后的能耗进行因素分解,从而验证经模型优化后的产业结构是否更利于节能。研究表明,产业结构优化后能保证河南省经济的合理增长及节能目标的完成;从能耗分解结果来看,经灰色线性规划模型优化后,结构效应对能耗抑制作用更明显,产业结构更利于节能。

It is an urgent problem that how to make the industrial structure adjustment beneficial to the achi- evement of the energy-saving goals. According to “the 12th Five Years” economic development and industry planning in Henan province, bottom-up sector decomposition method was firstly used to predict energy con- sumption and energy intensity of various sectors and the added value and energy consumption of industry could be got under planning scenarios before the industrial structure optimization. Then the constraint condi- tions were chosen to build dynamic gray linear programming model for the optimization of industrial struc- ture. Finally, LMDI method was used to decompose energy consumption to verify whether it was more con- ducive to energy conservation by model optimized. The result showed that industrial structure optimized could ensure a reasonable economic growth and a completion of energy efficiency goals. From the perspective of decomposition results of energy consumption, the industrial structure after a grey linear programming model optimized showed a more obvious suppression on energy and it was more conducive for energy conservation.