灰色预测模型及其在上海市中碳强度指数分析上的应用

Grey Forecasting Model and Its Application in Shanghai’s Middle Carbon Intensity Index Analysis

通过灰色系统理论,建立GM (1,1)模型对2012~2020年上海市碳强度进行预测,并研究了达成中碳强度指数减排目标的可行性。并利用灰色关联,分析了第一、二、三产业的对碳强度的影响大小,给出了减排措施。

The carbon intensity of shanghai from 2012 to 2020 is forecasted based on GM (1,1) model. Also we evaluate the possibility of achieving carbon emission reduction defined by middle carbon intensity index. The relation between primary, secondary, tertiary industry and carbon intensity is discussed by grey incidence degree. Finally, the policy of carbon emission reduction for middle carbon intensity index is given.