陕西省产业结构变动与区域经济增长关系实证研究

The Study on the Change of Industrial Structure and Regional Economic Growth in Shaanxi Province

产业结构变动是影响区域经济增长的重要因素。本文采用多部门经济模型,基于传统统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法和多元回归分析方法,分析1978年~2009年陕西省产业结构对经济增长的贡献,研究得出了国内生产总值增长的11.4305%是由产业结构变动引起的,其中第一、二、三产业对经济增长贡献的增长弹性依次为0.256、0.427和0.348,即每增加一个单位对经济增长的带动作用强度排名依次为一产、三产、二产,在此实证研究的基础上得出了产业结构调整对策。

Industrial structure is an important factor that influences the regional economic growth. Using the model of multiple industries and the calculation method which is based on contribution degree of industrial structure, the paper analyzes the contribution of industrial structure change to economic growth form 1978 - 2009 in Shaanxi Province and finds that the study concluded that a GDP growth of 11.4305% is caused by a change of industrial structure. And the first, second and third industry’s contribution to economic growth elasticity, in order 0.256, 0.427 and 0.348. That is, each additional unit to economic growth impetus of strength rankings for primary industry, tertiary industry and secondary industry. On the basis of this empirical study suggests a restructuring strategy.