美国政府减税发债的财务可行性分析—基于净现值分析视角

Financial Feasibility Analysis of Tax Reduction and Debt Issuing for the US Government—Based on the NPV Perspective

本文以美国民主党和共和党在财政预算协议上的针锋相对而导致美国政府又一次“停摆”的事件为背景,从净现值的分析角度来说明了两党之争中何者的主张更具可行性。然后,借鉴这个思路,对我国地方政府债务过高的问题进行思考,到底地方政府债务风险是处于安全可控的状况,还是处于风险爆发前的蛰伏期,我们又该如何来看待地方政府债务高且快速增长的问题。本文结果表明,地方政府负债率的过高并不能说明其风险就很大,而应该从地方政府债务融资成本和债务资金投资收益的比较关系来看待地方政府债务的风险。

This paper takes the events that Democratic and Republican tit-for-tat on the budget agreement, which leads to the US government “lockout” once again as the background;the analysis from the perspective of net present value shows that which of the two Parties’ plan is more feasible. Then, we draw a lesson from this idea and think about the problem of high local government debt in our country, which help us assess whether the debt risk of local government is in a controllable condition or in the dormant period before the risk outbreak, and tell us how to treat the problems of high local government debt and its rapid growth. In this paper, the results show that high local government debt does not mean that the risk is very big, but rather should be from the comparison between the financing costs of local government debt and the ROI of debt capital to assess the risk of local government debt.