城市化与工业化对我国房价影响路径差异的研究

A Study on the Impact Paths of Industrialization and Urbanization on Real Estate Prices in China

首次采用结构方程模型(SEM)就城市化与工业化对房价的不同作用路径与模式进行了分析。探究结果表明:城市化与工业化对省际房价的作用路径与模式存在着明显的差别,虽然二者对房价均具有正向的直接影响,但二者的间接作用路径差异较大。其中,工业化通过对空气污染状况的作用来影响房价的变化,城市化通过对居民生活状况(收入、人均GDP)与废气排放的角度来影响房价。除此之外,工业化还通过调控产业结构对房价产生影响,而城市化中人口比重对房价的作用是“倒U型”,市区人口比重对房价作用存在阈值(转折点为0.615),即在一般情况下,当市区人口比重超出该阈值,将会导致该区域房价下降。因此,从调控房价的角度来看,应该将重心放在城市化的作用路径上。

This paper is to introduce Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) into the research field of real estate prices influencing factor for the first time. The different paths and modes of industrialization and urbanization impact on real estate prices are revealed. The empirical analysis shows that there are obvious differences between the impact paths and modes of urbanization and industrialization on real estate prices. Although both have a positive direct impact on realestate prices, the indirect effects of the two are quite different. Among them, industrialization affects the change of house prices through the role of air pollution. Urbanization affects house prices through the perspective of residents’ living conditions (income, per capita GDP) and exhaust emissions. In addition, industrialization also plays a role in the adjustment of industrial structure, while the role of population in urbanization on exhaust emissions is “inverted U”, which in turn has an effect on housing prices. The threshold of the role of urban population in housing prices exists (turning point 0.615), that is, under normal circumstances, when the proportion of urban population exceeds the threshold, it will cause the housing prices in the region to drop. From the perspective of controlling housing prices, we should focus on the role of urbanization.