供给侧改革背景下常州现代物流业竞争力研究

Research on the Competitiveness of Changzhou’s Modern Logistics Industry under the Background of Supply-Side Reform

随着我国供给侧改革的不断深入,政府及社会各行业对于作为衡量城市现代化程度、综合经济实力与发展环境重要标志之一的现代物流业的重视程度越来越高。城市物流业更是成为发展城市经济以及提高城市综合实力的支柱产业之一。江苏省常州市是一座拥有较为完整产业链、优越交通区位的城市。伴随着长三角经济区的形成,常州如何通过发展现代城市物流业来促进其它产业以及全市经济的发展无疑具有非常重要的意义。本文以供给侧改革为背景,以常州市现代物流业竞争力为研究对象,借助系统动力学的方法,研究常州市现代物流业竞争力的内部结构和各变量之间的关系;在分析近年来常州市物流业多项经济指标的基础上构建了常州市现代物流业竞争力系统仿真模型并进行模拟仿真。模拟仿真结果显示,从2016年后的未来八年里,在城市就业人口趋于平缓的情况下,GDP和物流产业规模仍然会保持快速上涨势头;同时城市物流实际需求量也会稳步提升,物流积压则快速下降;但生态系统由于具有高度复杂性、关联性,在短期内仍可能呈现不容乐观的趋势。

With the continuous deepening of China’s supply-side reform, government and all sectors of the society have paid more and more attention to modern logistics industry, which is one of the im-portant symbols of the level of urban modernization, comprehensive economic strength and en-vironment development. Changzhou is a city with relatively comprehensive industrial chain and advantageous transportation location in Jiangsu Province. With the formation of the economic zone of the Yangtze River Delta, it is of great significance for Changzhou city to promote the development of other industries and this city’s economy through the modern city logistics industry’s development. Taking the supply-side reform as the background, and taking the competitiveness of modern logistics industry in Changzhou as the research object, this paper studies the relationship between internal structure of competitiveness of the modern logistics industry in Changzhou and relations between various variables by the means of theory of system dynamics. On the basis of analysis of economic indicators of the logistics industry in Changzhou in recent years, this study constructs the simulation model of competitiveness of logistics industry in Changzhou and simula-tion is also conducted. The simulation results show that in the coming eight years since 2016, the GDP and scale of logistics industry will still keep rising rapidly in the situation where the city’s employment population tends to grow slow. At the same time, the actual demand for urban logistics will also increase steadily, and the backlog of logistics will decline rapidly. However, we still couldn’t hold an optimistic view of the ecosystem in the short run because of its characteristics of high complexity and association. Therefore, in the context of the supply-side reform, government needs to increase investment in education and science and technology and improve the innovation power, so as to realize the coordinated development of modern logistics industry and economic and social environment in Changzhou. We suggest that the intensive development of logistics industry should be strengthened, information and resources should be integrated, and the goal of sustainable development should be achieved. The development mode of modern logistics industry should be actively adjusted, and the quality and efficiency of logistics services should be improved to meet people’s needs of high-quality production and life. Besides, environmental protection should be strengthened to create beautiful and pleasant living environment. Finally we should actively attract high-level logistics management talents to promote the competitiveness of modern logistics industry.