油气项目风险评价的研究现状及发展趋势——基于WOS和CNKI数据库的文献计量对比分析

Research Status and Development Trend of Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Projects—A Comparative Bibliometric Analysis Based on Wos and Cnki Databases

油气项目具有高投入、高风险、高产出、长周期的特点,如何更为科学地量化风险、更为直观地展示风险、更为有效地规避风险,已成为石油公司决策层急需解决的一个现实问题。为更好地把握研究热点和主题的变化趋势,为我国油气风险评价相关研究提供有益参考,笔者综合运用Citespace和VOSviewer等工具,对油气项目风险评价领域的国内外文献进行了梳理与量化分析,从论文产出规模、高产作者与研究机构、研究主题及研究热点变化等方面开展了深入研究与对比分析,并在此基础上聚焦风险定量评价开展典型文献剖析,总结了国内外主流的定量评价方法及发展趋势,最后进而从评价内容、评价模型和评价过程三个方面提出了今后的研究展望。

Oil and gas projects have the characteristics of high input, high risk, high output and long cycle. How to quantify risks more scientifically, display risks more intuitively, and avoid risks more effectively has become a practical problem that needs to be solved urgently by the decision-makers of oil companies. In order to better grasp the changing trend of research hotspots and themes, and provide useful references for the research on oil and gas risk assessment in China, the author comprehensively used tools such as CiteSpace and VOSviewer to sort out and quantitatively analyze the domestic and foreign literature in the field of oil and gas project risk assessment. In-depth research and comparative analysis were carried out from the aspects of paper output scale, high-yield authors and research institutions, research themes and research hotspot changes. And on this basis, the author focused on risk quantitative evaluation to carry out typical literature analysis and summarized the mainstream quantitative evaluation methods and development trends at home and abroad. Finally the future research prospects is proposed from three aspects: evaluation content, evaluation model and evaluation process.