数字经济、产业结构升级与绿色全要素生产率的动态关系研究

Digital economy, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Green Total Factor Productivity

数字经济、产业结构升级以及绿色全要素生产率都是经济高质量发展的重要表现,为研究三者的关系,本研究基于全国279个地级市的数据,在分析三者的时间演化趋势以及耦合协调发展的基础上,进一步研究了三者的互动关系。结论如下:1) 数字经济、产业结构升级、绿色全要素生产率之间的耦合协调关系从严重失调阶段逐渐向中级协调阶段发展。2) 从全国层面看,数字经济、产业结构升级受到自身发展路径的正向影响。数字经济、产业结构升级之间存在双向互动影响,绿色全要素生产率在短期内会抑制数字经济以及产业结构升级。3) 通过方差分解预测分析,三者发展更依赖于自身路径。相较而言,绿色全要素生产率比产业结构升级对数字经济更有解释力,数字经济比绿色全要素生产率对解释产业结构升级更有解释力,但是不同地区存在异质性差异。

Digital economy, industrial structure upgrading and green total factor productivity are all important manifestations of high-quality economic development. In order to study the relationship between the three, based on the data of 279 prefecture level cities in China, this study further studies the interactive relationship between the three based on the analysis of their time evolution trend and coupling and coordinated development. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the coupling and coordination relationship among digital economy, industrial structure upgrading and green total factor productivity has gradually developed from the serious imbalance stage to the intermediate coordination stage. 2) From the national level, the digital economy and industrial structure upgrading are positively affected by their own development path. There is a two-way interaction between digital economy and industrial structure upgrading. Green total factor productivity will inhibit digital economy and industrial structure upgrading in the short term. 3) Through variance decomposition prediction analysis, the development of the three depends more on their own path. Comparatively speaking, green total factor productivity is more explanatory to the digital economy than industrial structure upgrading, and digital economy is more explanatory to the industrial structure upgrading than green total factor productivity, but there are heterogeneity differences in different regions.