扩大内需战略下城镇居民消费扩容研究——基于河南省的数据

Research on the Consumption Expansion of Urban Residents under the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand—Based on Data from Henan Province

消费是关乎民生福祉的重要体现,是实现国内大循环的重要方面。但是,近年来,人们的储蓄意愿较强烈,各地居民的消费都呈现出放缓趋势。本文基于河南省2011~2021年的数据,从消费总水平、平均消费倾向、边际消费倾向、消费比重、消费边际倾向以及消费收入弹性这六个方面,多角度地对河南省城镇居民的消费结构进行了分析,预测了“十四五”期间的消费变化趋势。在描述性分析的基础上,运用了ELES模型进行实证检验,研究发现河南省消费仍需扩容、与山东省可支配收入差距较大以及消费结构不合理等问题并指出了产生这些问题的主要原因,提出了提高居民经营性收入、改善市场环境、依托自身优势大力发展经济等建议。

Consumption is an important embodiment of people’s livelihood and well-being, and an important aspect of realizing the domestic cycle. However, in recent years, people’s desire to save has been stronger, and the consumption of residents everywhere has shown a slowdown trend. Based on the data of Henan Province from 2011 to 2021, this paper analyzes the consumption structure of urban residents in Henan Province from six perspectives: total consumption level, average consumption tendency, marginal consumption tendency, consumption proportion, consumption marginal propensity and consumption income elasticity, and predicts the consumption trend during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. On the basis of descriptive analysis, the ELES model is used to conduct empirical tests, and the results show that the consumption of Henan Province still needs to be expanded, the gap between the disposable income of Henan Province and Shandong Province is large, and the consumption structure is unreasonable, and the main reasons for these problems are pointed out, and some suggestions are put forward to increase residents’ operating income, improve the market environment, and vigorously develop the economy by relying on its own advantages.