数字普惠金融能否促进中国制造业就业规模增长——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Whether Digital Financial Inclusion Can Promote Manufacturing Employment in China Scale Growth—Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

自党的二十大召开以来,建设现代化产业体系,坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上,健全就业促进机制逐渐成为共识。为推动高质量发展,加快形成新质生产力,普惠金融成为新的经济增长着力点,数字普惠金融是“双循环”新发展格局下就业的重要稳定器。本课题旨在探讨数字普惠金融对中国制造业就业规模的直接和间接影响。在充分收集和研究已有文献资料的基础上,运用2015~2022年31个省(区、市)的面板数据,检验了数字普惠金融对制造业就业规模扩大的直接效应;同时利用中介效应模型,验证了数字普惠金融通过科技创新的融资约束这一中介变量,对制造业就业规模扩大产生间接效应。Since the convening of the Party’s 20th Congress, it has gradually become a consensus to build a modern industrial system, adhere to the focus of economic development on the real economy, and improve the employment promotion mechanism. In order to promote high-quality development and accelerate the formation of new-quality productive forces, digital inclusive finance is an important stabilizer for employment under the new development pattern of “double cycle”. This paper tries to study the direct and indirect effects of digital inclusive finance on the growth of China’s manufacturing industry. On the basis of full collection and research of existing documents, using 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2015~2022, the panel data tests the direct effect of digital inclusive finance on the expansion of manufacturing employment, and verifies the indirect effect on the expansion of manufacturing employment through the financing constraint of technological innovation.