基于ARIMA模型的中国研究生招生人数预测分析

Predictive Analysis of Graduate Enrollment in China Based on ARIMA Model

随着我国研究生招生规模的逐年增加,国家宏观调控政策越来越需要适应社会和经济发展的需要,因此,编制年度研究生招生计划需要有理有据,并构建编制研究生年度招生计划的合理模型。为了能更好地预测和确定我国研究生年度招生计划,在借鉴一些学者和研究人员的成果的基础上,本文采用时间序列分析方法对中国研究生招生人数进行预测,为相关部门制定未来可持续发展计划提供参考,随着越来越多的学生选择考研,其原因也呈现出多样化趋势,“考研热”也已成为一种不容忽视的教育现象,但是学术界对中国研究生招生人数研究则少有论及。因此,本文首先对1984~2023年间中国研究生招生人数数据进行收集整理,然后运用Eviews10软件对数据建立了最优模型ARIMA(0,1,3)。过程中用到了时序图法、差分运算法、单位根检验法、残差检验法等方法完成了对未来五年研究生招生人数的预测。最后,研究表明,2024年的考研报名人数相较于前几年出现了一定程度的下降。这一变化引发了人们对考研制度和教育发展的思考。有人认为,这可能是因为就业形势改善,一部分毕业生选择了直接就业而非继续深造。另一方面,也有人指出,这可能是对考研竞争激烈程度的一种回应,一些考生认为自己的竞争力不足,选择放弃考研,转而寻找其他发展路径。这些结论和建议旨在帮助中国研究生招生发展更加稳健的同时也要保证质量方面的严格把关,从而为科学快捷编制年度研究生招生计划提供科学理论依据。With the increasing scale of graduate enrollment in our country year by year, the national macro-control policies are increasingly needed to adapt to the needs of social and economic development. Therefore, the preparation of annual graduate enrollment plans needs to be reasonable and well founded, and a reasonable model for the preparation of annual graduate enrollment plans needs to be constructed. In order to better predict and determine the annual enrollment plan for graduate students in China, based on the achievements of some scholars and researchers, this article uses time series analysis method to predict the number of graduate students enrolled in China, providing reference for relevant departments to formulate future sustainable development plans. With more and more students choosing to take the postgraduate entrance examination, the reasons for this have shown a diversified trend, and the “postgraduate entrance examination fever” has become an educational phenomenon that cannot be ignored. However, there is little research in the academic community on the number of Chinese graduate students admitted. Therefore, this article first collected and organized data on the number of Chinese graduate admissions from 1984 to 2023, and then used Eviews9 software to establish the optimal model ARIMA(0,1,3) for the data. During the process, methods such as time series diagram, differential operation algorithm, unit root test, and residual test were used to predict the number of graduate admissions for the next five years. Finally, research shows that the number of applicants for the postgraduate entrance examination in 2024 has decreased to a certain extent compared to previous years. This change has triggered people’s reflection on the postgraduate entrance examination system and the development of education. Some people believe that this may be due to the improvement of the employment situation, with some graduates choosing direct employment rather than continuing their studies. On the other hand, some people have pointed out that this may be a response to the fierce competition in the postgraduate entrance examination. Some candidates believe that their competitiveness is insufficient and choose to give up the examination and instead seek other development paths. These conclusions and recommendations aim to help the development of graduate enrollment in China become more stable while ensuring strict quality control, thus providing a scientific theoretical basis for the scientific and efficient preparation of annual graduate enrollment plans.