人口老龄化对河南省产业结构升级溢出效应研究——基于消费结构变迁

Research on the Spillover Effect of Population Aging on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure in Henan Province—Based on the Change of Consumption Structure

基于消费结构变迁,探究河南省人口老龄化与产业结构升级的关系,为河南省积极应对人口老龄化,实现产业结构升级提供有益启示。本文基于河南省2011~2021年面板数据,采用固定效应、中介效应和分位数回归进行实证研究。结果表明,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化和合理化有显著促进作用;从作用路径看,人口老龄化可以通过改变消费结构对产业结构高级化和合理化产生影响;人口老龄化与产业结构高级化之间存在显著非线性变化影响趋势;当产业结构合理化达到一定水平时,人口老龄化才会对其发挥促进作用。在人口老龄化程度不断加深的趋势下,河南省应积极拉动内需,大力发展老龄产业,加快实现供给侧与需求侧间的良性互动,以推动产业结构升级。Based on the change of consumption structure, this paper explores the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading in Henan Province, which provides useful inspiration for Henan Province to actively respond to population aging and realize industrial structure upgrading. Based on the panel data of Henan Province from 2011 to 2021, this paper uses fixed effect, mediating effect and quantile regression to conduct an empirical study. The results show that population aging has a significant role in promoting the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure. From the perspective of action path, population aging can have an impact on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure by changing the consumption structure. There is a significant nonlinear change trend between population aging and industrial structure upgrading. When the rationalization of the industrial structure reaches a certain level, the aging of the population will play a role in promoting it. Under the trend of deepening population aging, Henan Province should actively stimulate domestic demand, vigorously develop the aging industry, and accelerate the benign interaction between the supply side and the demand side, so as to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.