基于K-Means + MST算法的疫情期间生活物资科学管理预测——以长春市朝阳区物资发放点为例

Scientific Management Prediction of Living Materials during the Epidemic Based on K-Means Algorithm and MST Algorithm—Taking the Example of the Material Distribution Point in Chaoyang District, Changchun City

在疫情发生的封闭管理期间,针对不同的人群需要不同的管理方法,考虑到人口的规模及地理位置的差异,需要统筹各方因素建立一个行之有效的管理模式,主要考虑的典型问题有:生活物资的发放问题;物资运送路线问题。生活物资发放问题主要考虑物资投放点数量及位置的合理性,物资发放时人员交流接触尽可能少,减少病毒交流扩散的可能性,物资运送路线问题主要考虑没有一种特定合理的运输路线。本文使用高斯插值法对没有统一发放物资时期的感染人数进行拟合,并通过拟合好的函数对后面的感染人数进行预测,针对疫情期间运输路线不合理,没有合理的运输路线问题,通过K-means算法求出合理的物资投放点坐标并利用求出的坐标与MST算法相结合,得出较为合理的配送路线图,可作为以后发生灾害的参考路线以实现经济效益的最大化。

During the closed management of the epidemic, different management methods are needed for dif-ferent groups of people. Considering the size of the population and the differences in geographic lo-cation, it is necessary to establish an effective management model by integrating all factors. The main issues to be considered are: the issue of material distribution;the issue of material transpor-tation routes. The main consideration of the distribution of living materials is the reasonableness of the number and location of the material delivery points, and the possibility of virus exchange and spread is reduced by minimizing the personnel exchange contact during the distribution of materi-als, the problem of material delivery routes mainly considers the absence of a specific and reasona-ble transportation route. In this paper, we use Gaussian interpolation method to fit the number of infected people in the period of no uniform distribution of supplies and predict the number of in-fected people later through the fitted function. For the problem of unreasonable transportation routes and no reasonable transportation routes during the epidemic, we use K-means algorithm to find out the reasonable coordinates of the material delivery points and use the found coordinates combined with MST algorithm to come up with a more reasonable distribution. The route map can be used as a reference route for future disasters to maximize the economic benefits.