基于GM(1,1)的双碳预测模型

Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality’s Prediction Model Based on GM(1.1)

通过建立数理分析模型,利用源于生物学研究的描述统计法分析长三角地区新能源汽车产业在全国新能源汽车市场的地位及作用。通过建立基于“OLS + 稳健标准误”思想的回归分析模型,使用Stata 16 SE进行回归分析,得出新能源汽车产业与传统汽车产业之间存在竞争关系。利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,处理原始时间序列数据后分别得到累加序列、紧邻均值生成序列,定义灰色微分方程,构建白化方程,以最小二乘法的思想得到时间响应表达式,实现未来3年长三角地区新能源汽车的市场保有量的预测。最后利用历年长三角区域煤炭、原油、天然气、电能的能源消耗量通过换算系数和碳排放系数的转换,得到长三角地区碳排放总量,再对四个能源关于时间的拟合曲线进行赋权,得到组合拟合曲线,画出碳排放的拟合曲线图,再减去碳吸收量,得到碳吸收拟合曲线,得出长三角地区将在2029年实现碳达峰,在2061年实现碳中和结论。

Through establishment of mathematical analysis model, take advantage of statistical method de-rived from biological research to analyze the Changjiang Delta’s new energy car industry’s position and role in nationwide new energy car market. By building a regression analysis model based on “OLS + ROBUST Standard Error”’s thoughts, take advantage of Stata 16 SE for regression analysis, concluded that there exist a competitive relationship between new energy car and traditional car. Take advantage of GM(1,1) grey prediction model, process the original time data to get cumulative sequence and the adjacent, mean the grey differential equation, establish the winterization equa-tion. The time response expression was obtained by the least square method, to reach the predic-tion to the Changjiang Delta’s market inventory of new energy car. At last, take advantage of Changjiang Delta’s coal, crude oil, natural gas and electric energy’s consumption, converting conver-sion coefficient and carbon emission coefficient, and then empower fitted curve which related to time from these four energy to get the combined fitted curve. It is concluded that the Changjiang Delta will achieve carbon peak in 2029 and carbon neutrality in 2061.