APEC成员国碳排放与经济增长分类研究与启示

Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Classification Research of APEC Member Countries and Insights

为了研究国家经济发展与碳排放量之间的关系,本文基于APEC组织中的19个国家2005~2019年的有关面板数据,运用回归分析方法进行以下研究:首先,在人均CO2排放量的影响因素研究中,分析得出人均GDP对二氧化碳排放的贡献最大,其次,分析了其中的经济发展因素对CO2排放量的影响,得出结论为环境库兹涅茨假说的倒“U”型曲线并不适用,然后,通过对APEC成员不同收入类型国家以及中国的碳排放与经济发展之间的关系进行回归,比较分析其环境库兹涅茨曲线的类型与走向,得出高收入、中高收入国家以及中国的环境库兹涅茨曲线为倒“N”型,中低收入国家的环境库兹涅茨曲线为“N”型。最后,基于研究结果,对我国经济高质量发展条件下“双碳”目标的推进提出相关建议。

In order to study the relationship between national economic development and carbon emissions, this paper uses regression analysis based on relevant panel data of 19 APEC countries from 2005~2019 to conduct the following studies: firstly, in the study of factors influencing CO2 emissions per capita, the analysis concludes that GDP per capita makes the largest contribution to CO2 emis-sions. Secondly, we analyze the impact of economic development factors on CO2 emissions and con-cluded that the inverted “U” type curve of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis is not applicable. Then, we use regression analysis to investigate the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in different income types of APEC member countries and China, and we ob-tain the types and trends of their environmental Kuznets curves. We find that environmental Kuz-nets curves of high-income, upper-middle-income countries and China are of inverted “N” type, and the environmental Kuznets curves of lower-middle-income countries are of “N” type. Finally, based on the results of the study, we propose recommendations for the promotion of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals under the conditions of high-quality economic development in China.