考虑碳捕集的多氢源区域能源系统低碳模型研究

Research on Low Carbon Model of Multi Hydrogen Source Regional Energy System Considering Carbon Capture

为了解决现有模型分析区域能源系统氢能发展存在氢源单一导致碳排放定量分析困难的问题,本文在一个多部门的能源系统技术仿真模型(EnergyPLAN)基础上,增加考虑煤制氢耦合碳捕集技术,兼顾电解水制氢以及氢的储能特性,提出了一种适用于省级能源系统的多氢源耦合碳捕集技术低碳模型。以一个省级能源系统为例,通过预设的政策情景、净零情景和氢能联盟情景等三种潜在的氢能发展情景,分析了该省2021至2030年不同氢能渗透率下能源系统的碳排放、稳定性、结构以及成本。结果初步表明,所提含煤制氢耦合碳捕集技术的区域能源系统模型能够有效模拟该省各氢能情景下能源系统低碳发展路径,氢能发展能够提升能源系统的稳定性、改善能源系统结构和减少碳排放。

In order to solve the problem that the existing model analysis of regional energy system hydrogen energy development has a single hydrogen source, which leads to the difficulty in quantitative analysis of carbon emissions, on the basis of a multi-sector energy system technology simulation model (EnergyPLAN), this paper adds the consideration of coal hydrogen production coupled car-bon capture technology, taking into account the water electrolysis hydrogen production and hy-drogen energy storage characteristics, and proposes a low-carbon model of multi hydrogen source coupled carbon capture technology suitable for provincial energy systems. Taking a provincial en-ergy system as an example, the carbon emissions, stability, structure and cost of the energy system under different hydrogen penetration rates from 2021 to 2030 in the province are analyzed through three potential hydrogen development scenarios, including the preset policy scenario, the net zero scenario and the hydrogen alliance scenario. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed regional energy system model using coal-based hydrogen production coupled carbon capture technology can effectively simulate the low-carbon development path of the energy system in various hydrogen energy scenarios in the province. Hydrogen energy development can enhance the stability of the energy system, improve the structure of the energy system, and reduce carbon emissions.