2030年碳达峰刚性约束下的产业结构优化——基于多目标规划模型

Industrial Structure Optimization under Rigid Constraints of Carbon Peak by 2030—Based on Multi-Objective Programming Model

本文基于投入产出模型建立经济–能源–环境的多目标规划模型,分别设计了经济最大化情景、能源节约情景、二氧化碳排放约束情景、均衡发展情景和粗放发展情景。结果如下:第一,产业结构优化具有促进经济增长和节能减排的潜在作用,均衡发展情景下,到2030年,GDP为1574779.16亿元,能源消费量为488791.23万吨标准煤,二氧化碳排放量为1136833.55万吨,粗放情景下,GDP翻倍,能源消费量多549374.26万吨标准煤,二氧化碳排放量多1087373.58万吨,可见片面追求经济的增长,会对生态环境造成不可逆的影响;第二,在均衡发展情景下,应该着重发展金融业、房地产、租赁和商务服务业,批发零售贸易、住宿和餐饮业的趋势是先上升后下降的,有较大的减排潜力,其中纺织、服装及皮革产品制造业、炼焦、燃气及石油加工业、化学工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业、机械设备制造业、电力、热力及水的生产和供应业、建筑业在五种情景下比重都是下降的,应该通过提高技术来降低这些行业的能源强度和碳排放强度,促进行业内部升级,提高行业活力,防止产业空心化。

This article establishes a multi-objective planning model for the economy-energy-environment based on the input-output model, and designs scenarios for economic maximization, energy con-servation, carbon dioxide emission constraints, balanced development, and extensive development. The results are as follows: Firstly, industrial structure optimization has the potential to promote economic growth and energy conservation and emission reduction. Under a balanced development scenario, by 2030, the GDP will be 1574779.16 billion yuan, energy consumption will be 4887.9123 million tons of standard coal, and carbon dioxide emission will be 11368.3355 million tons. In the extensive scenario, GDP will double, energy consumption will increase by 5493.7426 million tons of standard coal, and carbon dioxide emission will increase by 10873.7358 million tons. It can be seen that a one-sided pursuit of economic growth will cause an irreversible impact on the ecological en-vironment;secondly, in the context of balanced development, emphasis should be placed on the development of finance, real estate, leasing, and business services. The trend of wholesale and retail trade, accommodation, and catering sector is to first rise and then decline, which has greater poten-tial for emission reduction. Among them, the proportion of the textile, clothing, and leather product manufacturing industry, coking, gas and petroleum processing industry, chemical industry, non-metallic mineral products, metal products industry, mechanical equipment manufacturing in-dustry, production and supply of electricity, heat, and water, as well as the construction industry, has decreased in all five scenarios. It is necessary to improve technology to reduce the energy in-tensity and carbon emission intensity of these industries, promote internal upgrading, enhance in-dustry vitality, and prevent industry hollowing out.