房价收入比公式的统计学研究

A Statistical Study of the Formula for the Ratio of Housing Prices to Income

为了研究居民收入的增加是否能支撑房价的上涨,我们采用住房价格比(即住房价格比城市居民家庭年收入)这一指标来进行研究,住房价格收入比是衡量居民住房价格承受能力的重要指标,在这几年工业化城市化快速发展的过程中,对中国房地产业以及房地产价格带来消极的影响,如住房的供求量和需求量严重不协调,住房结构不合理,房价直线增长等。本文通过对房价收入比的统计学研究,对房价收入比的收入进行了修正,引入了广义货币量(M2)这个指标,利用SPSS做M2指数的线性回归分析,对中国2000年到2014年的房价收入比进行调整,从而能够了解真实的房价收入比和中国的房地产实际情况情况,并在此基础上给予相关发展建议。

In order to study whether the increase of residents’income can support the increase of housing price,we adopt the housing price ratio(the ratio is housing price to the annual income of urban residents).Taking this indicator to conduct research,housing price income ratio is an important indicator to measure the housing price affordability of residents.In recent years,the rapid devel-opment of urbanization has a negative impact on China’s real estate industry and real estate prices,e.g.,there is severe discrepancy between the supply and demand of housing,housing structure is unreasonable,and house price is rising in a straight line.This article uses house price income ratio to conduct statistics research,and the house price income ratio was revised,the indicator of broad money supply(M2)was introduced,and SPSS was used to analyze M2 index by linear regression.In order to understand the real price-to-income ratio and the real situation of China’s real estate market,the price-to-income ratio was adjusted from 2016 to 2014,and on this basis,some relevant suggestions are given.