成都市住宅价格时空演化与分异机理及影响因素分析

Spatial Temporal Evolution and Differentiation Mechanism of Housing Price in Chengdu and Its Influencing Factors

伴随着我国经济的快速发展,住宅市场价格也出现了快速波动,住宅价格逐渐成为全社会共同关注的问题。成都市近年来经济快速发展,住宅价格经理特殊变化时期。选取成都市11个主要城区,统计分析近5年成都市主要研究区域住宅价格。基于GIS软件分析成都市研究区域价格时空演化规律,发现成都市住宅价格价格分成三个阶段:分别是房价稳定期、快速增长期、缓慢回落期。选取户籍人口、新增房源供给、“租售比”和租金几个因素对房价影响开展分析。研究表明从整体上看,成都市的住宅价格与新增房源数量之间并没有呈现供需走向关系;成都市住宅价格与“租售比”呈现相似的变化规律,“租售比”在2016年及以前维持稳定,2016~2017年随房价出现大幅抬升,2017年开始成都市的住宅价格与“租售比”出现逆向变化新现象;成都市住宅价格与租金呈现相似的变化规律,研究区域内的住宅租金呈现从2014年到2018年呈现“V”型变化,其中2014年1季度到2015年1季度温和上升后开始缓慢下降,到2017年1季度达到最低点后开始快速回升,此时成都市住宅销售价格也同步快速增长,到2018年4季度开始,住宅出租市场价格又开始温和降低。研究结果将为成都市住宅市场政府调控提供参考借鉴。

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the price of housing market has also fluctuated rapidly, and the housing price has gradually become a common concern of the whole society. In recent years, with the rapid economic development of Chengdu City, the housing price has changed in a special period. This paper selects 11 main urban areas of Chengdu to analyze the housing prices in the main research areas of Chengdu in recent five years. Based on GIS software, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution law of Chengdu’s research area price, and finds that Chengdu’s housing price can be divided into three stages: stable period, rapid growth period and slow decline period. This paper analyzes the impact of registered residence population, new housing supply, rent to sale ratio and rents on housing prices. The results show that, on the whole, there is no supply-demand relationship between housing price and new housing supply in Chengdu;Chengdu’s housing prices and the “rent to sell ratio” show similar changes. The “rent to sell ratio” remains stable in 2016 and before. With the sharp rise in housing prices from 2016 to 2017, Chengdu’s housing prices and the “rent to sell ratio” have a new phenomenon of reverse change since 2017;the housing price and rent in Chengdu show similar change rules. The housing rent in the study area presents a “V” type change from 2014 to 2018. From the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015, the housing price rises moderately and then decreases slowly. After reaching the lowest point in the first quarter of 2017, the housing price rises rapidly. At this time, the housing sales price in Chengdu also increases rapidly, by the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2018, the price of residential rental market began to decline moderately. The research results will provide a reference for the government regulation of Chengdu housing market.