基于灰色系统理论的黑龙江省万元GDP用水量分析预测

Analysis and Forecast of Water Consumption of Ten Thousand GDP in Heilongjiang Province Based on Grey System Theory

文章阐述了灰色系统理论的预测原理及方法,根据原有数据生成数列,将原始序列变成准光滑序列,建立黑龙江省万元GDP用水量的灰色预测模型,求出预测值并检验模型的精确度,发现灰色预测模型精确度高,并对黑龙江省未来三年的用水量进行分析预测。为提高黑龙江省水资源利用效率,提出了对策建议,包括建立完善、严格的水资源管理制度;发展新技术对水资源进行循环使用;转变经济结构,发展绿色环保及循环型经济;呼吁民众有节水意识和环保意识。

This paper expounds the prediction principle and method of the grey system theory, generates a series of numbers according to the original data, turns the original sequence into quasi-smooth sequence, establishes a grey model of the water consumption of ten thousand GDP in Heilongjiang Province, calculates the predicted value and tests the accuracy of the model. It is found that the grey prediction model has high accuracy, and analyzes the water consumption of Heilongjiang Province in the next three years. In order to improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Heilongjiang Province, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, including establishing a perfect and strict water resources management system;developing new technologies to recycle water resources;transforming the economic structure and developing a green and recycling economy;and appealing to the public to have awareness of water conservation and environmental protection.