战略主权视角下的俾斯麦大陆联盟政策研究

Research on Bismarck Continental Alliance Policy from the Perspective of Strategic Sovereignty

本文的研究问题是:面对遏制风险,历史上德意志第二帝国在前期崛起过程中靠着俾斯麦独创的大陆联盟政策取得了成功,凭借哪些因素塑造了这一成功的对外政策?本文结合新古典现实主义大战略的整体框架,基于地缘政治学的相关理论学说,在首次提出战略主权理论,解释变量包括:技术变革与大国间战略关系所深刻影响下的战略自主性:战略主权(自变量),领导人对战略自主性的整体认知:主权知觉(中介变量),以及国家的战略选择:国家对外政策(因变量)。通过过程追踪法基于“基辛根口述备忘录” (1877)为线索对大陆联盟政策进行案例验证。得出相关结论即:大陆联盟政策的目的就是帮助德意志第二帝国追求战略主权,之所以成功是因为俾斯麦对于德国既有战略主权的清晰认知。该历史经验对当今中国有巨大的启示。

The research question of this paper is: facing the risk of containment, the Second German Reich in history achieved success by relying on Bismarck's original continental alliance policy in the early rise process. What factors shaped this successful foreign policy? Combining the overall framework of neoclassical realism grand strategy, and based on the relevant theories of geopolitics, this paper puts forward the theory of strategic sovereignty for the first time. The explanatory variables in-clude: strategic autonomy under the profound influence of technological change and strategic rela-tions between major powers: strategic sovereignty (independent variable), leaders’ overall percep-tion of strategic autonomy: perception of sovereignty (mediating variable), and the state’s strategic choice: state foreign policy (dependent variable). Case verification of the Continental Union policy based on the “Kissingen Oral Memorandum” (1877) through the process tracing method. The rele-vant conclusion is that: the purpose of the Continental Alliance policy is to help the Second German Reich to pursue strategic sovereignty, and its success is due to Bismarck’s clear understanding of Germany’s existing strategic sovereignty. This historical experience has great implications for China today.