奉贤地区1959~2013年热量条件变化特征及对气温的响应

Change Characteristics of Heat Condition and Its Response to Temperature in Fengxian from 1959 to 2013

根据奉贤区1959~2013年气温资料分析了气温、积温的变化特征及积温对气温变化的响应。结果表明:奉贤55 a年平均气温为15.9℃,增温率为0.24℃/10a,突变年份为1995年;奉贤55年夏熟作物生长期积温、夏秋作物生长期积温、年积温分别为1322.5℃?d、2170.2℃?d、3492.7℃?d;各积温最少年代出现在20世纪70年代、80年代,最多年代出现在21世纪00年代、10年代。各积温高频振荡波动周期均为3a,波动频率较高的震荡周期分别为5.5~6a、9~11a;各积温年际、年代际变化及EMD趋势项均表现出增多趋势,突增年份分别为1993年、2003年、1998年。夏秋积温占年积温的比例大多为60%~64%,该比值与年、春季平均气温达到显著相关;夏熟积温随着年平均气温升高而增多,当年平均气温低于16℃时夏秋积温随着气温升高而增多,但高于16℃时在2100~2350℃?d波动。

Through analyzing the variation characteristics of temperature, accumulated temperature and the accumulated temperature response to temperature change by the temperature in Fengxian from 1959 to 2013, the results show that: The year average temperature is 15.9?C and the temperature increase rate is 0.24?C/10a, the mutation year is 1995. The accumulated temperature of summer crops growth period is 1322.5?C?d. The accumulated temperature of autumn crops growth period is 2170.2?C?d and the annual accumulated temperature is 2170.2?C?d. The accumulated temperature at least in 1970 s and 1980 s, the accumulated temperature at most in 2000s and 2010s. The temperature of the highest frequency oscillation period is 3a and the higher frequency oscillation periods are 5.5 - 6a and 9 - 11a. The interannual and interdecadal changes and EMD trend showed increasing trend. The mutation years of the three kinds accumulated temperature are 2003, 1993 and 1998. The accumulated temperature of autumn crops growth period accounted for the annual accumulated temperature is mostly 60% to 64%. The ratio was significantly correlated with the year average temperature and the average temperature in spring. The accumulated temperature of summer crops growth period increased with the increase of the year average temperature. The accumulated temperature of autumn crops growth period increased with the increase of the year average temperature while the year average temperature was less than 16?C, but the accumulated temperature of autumn crops growth period fluctuation at 2100 - 2350?C?d while the year average temperature was more than 16?C.