普定县降水致灾指标及灾害影响评估

Disaster Index and Disaster Impact Assessment of Rain in Puding County

本文采用概率统计的方法,对安顺市普定县近20年(2000~2020年)已经发生的67个滑坡的降雨资料进行了统计分析,并对普定地区的水文地质环境条件作了较为详细的介绍,然后从滑坡的空间分布、时间分布、滑坡与日降雨量及累计降雨量的关系、滑坡与降雨发生时间的比较、滑坡发生的前10 d内有降雨的天数与连续降雨的天数的比较、滑坡发生最近的1次降雨发生的时间等方面详细研究了降雨与滑坡的关系,得出了几个有益的结论。研究结果表明:滑坡主要分布在普定县的北部边缘;近10 d有一次暴雨就有一定机会诱发滑坡;滑坡的活动强度与累计降雨量的大小成正比;连续降雨的第二天滑坡风险很大;滑坡基本发生在降雨之后的4 d内。

Using the method of probability statistics, this paper makes a statistical analysis of the rainfall data of 67 landslides in Puding County, Anshun City in the past 20 years (2000~2020), and gives a detailed introduction to the hydrogeological environment conditions in Puding area. Then the relationship between rainfall and landslide is studied in detail from the spatial distribution, time distribution, the relationship between landslide and daily rainfall and cumulative rainfall, the comparison of the occurrence time of landslide and rainfall, the comparison between the days of rainfall within the first 10 d and the days of continuous rainfall, the occurrence time of the last rainfall and so on, and several useful conclusions are drawn. The results show that landslides are mainly distributed in the northern edge of Puding County. There is a chance of landslide induced by a rainstorm in the last 10 days. The intensity of landslide activity is proportional to the amount of accumulated rainfall. Landslide risk is high on the second day of continuous rain;Landslides generally occur within 4 days of rainfall.